Affirm Financial Model Information Session
June 2023
Affirm Financial Model Information Session June 2023 A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3
01 RLTC walkthrough Agenda 02 Operating expense walkthrough We will hold Q&A breaks after the RLTC section and conclusion 03 Conclusion A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 2
Cautionary note about forward-looking statements This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of maintain, renew or replace its existing funding arrangements and build and grow new Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the
Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures To supplement our condensed consolidated ûnancial statements, which are prepared and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States ("GAAP"), we present the following non-GAAP ûnancial measures, including revenue less transaction costs, revenue less transaction costs as a percentage of GMV, adjusted operating loss and adjusted operating margin. We also present certain operating expenses on a non-GAAP basis, as well as those non-GAAP operating expenses as a percentage of GAAP total revenue. Reconciliations of each non-GAAP ûnancial measure with the most directly comparable GAAP ûnancial measure can be found in our earnings supplement slide deck, which is available on our Investor Relations website. Our management uses these non-GAAP ûnancial measures in conjunction with ûnancial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP for planning purposes, including the preparation of our annual operating budget, as a measure of our operating results and the effectiveness of our business strategy, and in evaluating our ûnancial performance. However, non-GAAP ûnancial information is presented for supplemental informational purposes only, and our use of these non-GAAP ûnancial measures has limitations as an analytical tool. Accordingly, you should not consider these non-GAAP ûnancial measures in isolation or as substitutes for analysis of our ûnancial results as reported under GAAP, and these non-GAAP measures should be considered along with other operating and ûnancial performance measures presented in accordance with GAAP. Investors are encouraged to review the related GAAP ûnancial measures and the reconciliations of these non-GAAP ûnancial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP ûnancial measures and not rely on any single ûnancial measure to evaluate our business. A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 4
01 Revenue less transaction costs (RLTC) walkthrough A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 5
Suggested approaches to model RLTC Forecast revenue Bottom up Forecast GMV by Estimate on vs. off and transaction approach product balance sheet GMV cost line items RLTC forecast Top down Forecast total GMV Forecast RLTC as a % of GMV approach A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 6
Gross merchandise volume Product mix drivers in $ million by product type ● Changes in merchant mix ● Ability to add new products at 24% 18% existing merchants Ex-Peloton Growth ● Increasing adoption of Adaptive Growth Checkout vs. Pay in 4 only Structural GMV drivers ● U.S. e-commerce spend ● Increasing BNPL penetration ● Expanding share of cart ● Capturing daily and in-store spend ● International expansion Temporary GMV drivers ● Seasonality: 2FQ beneûts from holiday shopping ● Shifts in consumer spend between staples vs. discretionary purchases Note: GMV deûned as the total dollar amount of all transactions on the Afûrm platform during the period, net of refunds. Beginning in Fiscal Q1 2023, Afûrm modiûed the deûnition of its low Average Order Value product from Split Pay to Pay in 4. Pay in 4 includes volume from loan transactions with 0% APR and 6-8 week term lengths but A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 now excludes volume from monthly installment loans with 0% APR and 3 month term lengths. Metrics are unaudited. 7
On vs. off-balance sheet GMV in $ million loans sold and GMV less loans sold Drivers ● Funding market conditions ● GMV growth relative to funding capacity additions Note: GMV reüects gross merchandise volume net of refunds and includes volume from Pay Now or down payments on loans; loans are net of A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 down payments and exclude Pay Now volume. Loans sold includes outstanding principal balance at the time of loan sale. Metrics are unaudited. 8
Revenue A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 9
How we monetize GMV Revenue sources in $ million and total revenue as a % of GMV 7% Growth A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 10
Network revenue in $ millions and as a % of GMV Drivers ● Total GMV ● GMV mix between Pay in 4, 0% APR, interest-bearing product, and Pay Now A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 11
Illustrative merchant fee rates MDR has been stable on a like-for-like product basis Drivers ● Product mix - the most important driver of overall MDR ● Loan duration within 0% APR ● Merchant mix Core 0% Long includes loans with term lengths greater than 12 months and 0% APR; Core 0% Short includes loans with term lengths at least three months long but less than or equal to 12 months and 0% APR; Core IB includes loans with interest from Afûrm integrated merchants; Pay in 4 (formerly known as Split Pay) includes loans with 0% APR and 6-8 week term lengths; Non-Integrated Virtual Card A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 includes loans made by Afûrm at non-integrated merchants using Afûrm's virtual card technology; excludes loans made in Canada via Afûrm or legacy Paybright business and excludes Returnly and Debit+ Card transactions. Metrics are unaudited. 12
Interest income in $ million and as a % of average loans held for investment Drivers ● Average balance of loans held for investment (LHFI) ● LHFI mix between interest-bearing and 0% APR, including Pay in 4 ● Pricing initiatives A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 13
Gain on sales of loans in $ millions and as a % of loans sold Drivers ● Loans sold during quarter ● Funding market conditions ● Benchmark interest rates and credit spreads ● Average APR on loans sold ● Credit quality of loans sold A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 14
Servicing income in $ million and as a % of average off balance sheet platform portfolio Drivers ● Average balance of platform portfolio held off balance sheet A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 15
Transaction Costs A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 16
Transaction cost overview in $ million and total transaction costs as a % of GMV A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 17
Loan Loss Allowance Waterfall QUARTERLY CHANGE IN ALLOWANCE LAST 12 MONTHS CHANGE IN ALLOWANCE $182 $61 $(67) $176 $159 $294 $(278) $176 Allowance Provision Charge-offs, Allowance Allowance Provision Charge-offs, Allowance December 2022 for Losses Net March 2023 March 2022 for Losses Net March 2023 LAST 12 MONTHS CHANGE IN ALLOWANCE QUARTER ENDING 12 MONTHS ENDING Jun 30, 2022 Sep 30, 2022 Dec 31, 2022 March 31, 2023 March 31, 2023 Beginning of Period Allowance 159 155 153 182 159 (+) Provision for Loan Losses 68 62 103 61 294 (-) Charge-offs, Net (72) (64) (74) (67) (278) End of Period Allowance $155 $153 $182 $176 $176 Loans Held for Investment $2,504 $2,682 $3,656 $3,776 $3,776 Allowance % of Loans Held for 6.2% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.7% Investment Caption/Disclosure text: Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation. Dollars in millions; metrics are unaudited. A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 18
Provision for credit losses in $ million and as a % of GMV less loans sold during the quarter Drivers ● Allowance for loans held at end of period ● Product and merchant mix ● Credit posture, reüected in ITACS mix ● Actual credit outcomes A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 19
Processing and servicing expense in $ million and as a % of GMV Drivers ● Total GMV and platform portfolio size ● Mix of GMV originated at a large enterprise partner with a revenue-share agreement ● Repayment mix and servicing optimizations A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 20
Funding costs in $ million and as a % of funding debt & securitization notes Drivers ● Average balance of funding debt plus securitization notes ● Average funding cost (benchmark rate + credit spreads) ● Loans held for investment A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 21
Loss on loan purchase commitment in $ millions and as a % of GMV from 0% APR products excluding Pay in 4 Drivers ● 0% and Low APR loans held on balance sheet originated by partner banks ● Duration of 0% APR loans originated by partner banks A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 22
Top Down Approach RLTC as a % of GMV A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 23
Recent drivers of RLTC as a % of GMV Driver Business Impact FY’23 RLTC impact Affirm / BNPL Industry Specific Dynamics Pricing initiatives ● Higher APRs increase consumer interest and gain on sale Tailwind ● Higher merchant fees increase network revenue Product mix ● Our loan products have differing proûtability proûles, with interest bearing loans Tailwind typically being the most proûtable loan product Merchant mix shift ● Enterprise partners and lower order values increase frequency and network size, but Headwind potentially at lower RLTC as a % of GMV ● Increase in platform fees due to success of certain partnerships Product efûciency improvements ● Underwriting optimizations reduce credit provisions, driving up margin Tailwind Macroeconomic Factors Consumer spending trends ● Discretionary purchases tend to have higher AOVs, which generally have a higher RLTC Headwind as a % of GMV Funding costs ● Higher benchmark interest rates and credit spreads increase the cost to fund Headwind on-balance sheet loans and reduce gain on sale Holiday seasonality ● Rapid sequential GMV growth drives up 2FQ provision expense which is dilutive to Headwind RLTC as a % of GMV within quarter Consumer credit environment ● Impacts loan loss provisions and gain on sale Headwind Note:
RLTC summary in $ million and as a % of GMV Final RLTC considerations ● Macroeconomic factors have been a significant headwind to RLTC as a % of GMV in FY’23 ● Affirm-specific factors have had a neutral impact to RLTC as a % of GMV in FY’23 ● Pricing initiatives will take several quarters to achieve maximum beneût ● RLTC as a % of GMV is highly seasonal with 2FQ seasonally softest Note: References to impact on RLTC as a % of GMV in FY’23 relate to RLTC impact as measured through the ûrst three quarters of FY’23 A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 25
RLTC Q&A A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 26
02 Operating expense walkthrough A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 27
Non-GAAP operating expenses $ million Non-GAAP operating expenses exclude (a) depreciation and amortization; (b) stock-based compensation included in GAAP operating loss; (c) A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 expenses related to warrants and share-based payments granted to enterprise partners; and (d) certain other costs. Metrics are unaudited. 28
Share-based payment expense $ million A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. Amounts above are included in Operating Expenses. 29
Share-based payment accounting $ 000 unless otherwise indicated Considerations ● GAAP share-based expenses are added back to stockholders’ equity at the end of each ûscal period ● The main impact of share-based expenses is dilution ● Since 3FQ’21, our shareholder equity has been stable at ~$2.5 billion despite substantial net losses A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 30
Enterprise warrant and commercial agreement expenses $ million unless otherwise indicated Item 3FQ’23 expense Driver Commercial agreement $19 million Fixed expense Enterprise warrants $94 million Performance based We expect total enterprise warrant and commercial agreement expense to decline substantially by 2FH’25 A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 31
Employee stock-based compensation $ million unless otherwise indicated Considerations ● We establish SBC based upon an annual dilution target, not GAAP expense ● Additional CEO Value Creation Award stock options will be earned only if the 90 trading day VWAP of Affirm Class A shares exceeds $132 A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 Metrics are unaudited. 32
03 Conclusion A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 33
Final considerations when Modeling our business Focus on forecasting RLTC Non-GAAP operating expenses Share-based payments ● We have demonstrated good ● We target a certain amount of ● Consider using both bottom up non-GAAP sales and marketing annual share-based dilution and top down approaches and G&A expense leverage ● Vesting of CEO value creation ● Consider both the Afûrm-speciûc ● Non-GAAP tech and data award options is subject to high and macroeconomic factors analytics expense has scaled with share price thresholds affecting RLTC as a % of GMV GMV and customer growth ● We expect enterprise warrant and commercial asset expense to decline substantially by FYE’25 A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 34
Thank you and Q&A Questions? ir@affirm.com A F F I R M | 2 0 2 3 35